The Impact of the Abraham Accords on Middle Eastern Diplomacy
The Abraham Accords have significantly reshaped the diplomatic landscape between Israel, several Arab states, and the United States. The distinctive feature of these agreements lies in their transactional nature, as the Trump administration linked normalization with Israel to the provision of American advantages tailored to the specific interests of each partner. For instance, Morocco was granted recognition of its sovereignty over the occupied Western Sahara, while the United Arab Emirates (UAE) gained expanded access to advanced American military equipment and technologies. However, this transactional logic possesses an inherent weakness; the benefits conferred are contingent upon decisions made by the U.S. executive rather than being grounded in commitments enshrined in federal law.
Moreover, the current political scene in the United States is undergoing unprecedented transformations. The bipartisan consensus that has traditionally supported Israel is beginning to erode, and the influence of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), the powerful Jewish lobby, is diminishing. This shift has been exacerbated by the ongoing conflict with Iran, which saw Donald Trump aligning closely with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose primary goal appears to be maintaining power even at the expense of regional stability. This context, coupled with the tragic events in Gaza, has led to an emerging isolationist sentiment among Republican voters, making support for Israel less automatic than before. A notable example of AIPAC’s waning influence can be seen in Michigan, where despite spending millions to prevent Egyptian-American candidate Abdul El-Sayed from securing the Democratic nomination, the lobby ultimately failed.
Morocco's Diplomatic Gains: Fragile Yet Significant
Morocco epitomizes the most emblematic case of this transactional diplomacy. In December 2020, the Trump administration recognized Morocco's sovereignty over Western Sahara in exchange for the normalization of relations between Rabat and Israel. While this decision carries significant political weight, it was achieved at the cost of betraying the Palestinian cause, given that the Moroccan monarch is traditionally seen as a protector of Al Quds. Additionally, this recognition remains precarious from a legal standpoint, as it was never formalized through Congressional legislation and exists solely as a presidential decision, susceptible to revision by any future administration. The lack of a legislative foundation raises the possibility of a reversal, particularly as support for Israel increasingly becomes a divisive issue, even within the Republican Party and among younger American voters.
To safeguard its diplomatic gains, Morocco must demonstrate its commitment to serving as a compliant ally of Washington in security cooperation, while also aligning itself with American interests in various economic sectors, including phosphates, critical minerals, and green hydrogen. The UAE’s objectives within the framework of the Abraham Accords are more extensive, aiming to solidify its partnership with Washington and deepen its longstanding relationship with Israel, both to counter Iranian threats and to gain access to advanced technology in artificial intelligence. The normalization established in 2020 has also paved the way for enhanced military cooperation, including a proposed sale of F-35 aircraft valued at tens of billions of dollars. However, unlike Morocco’s diplomatic risks, the UAE faces potential challenges regarding access to American technology, especially if conditions become stricter over time.
Both nations share a fundamental vulnerability, as their achievements primarily hinge on executive decisions rather than legislative commitments. Additionally, the personalization of these relationships around Donald Trump exacerbates this fragility. For Morocco, this is symbolized by the naming of a road in Dakhla after the former president, while for the UAE, concerns have arisen regarding financial ties between Emirati investors and Trump’s economic circle, raising questions about the intersection of private interests and public policy.
As the midterm elections in November 2026 approach, they will serve as an initial barometer for shifts in the American political landscape. A Congress that is more critical of the foreign policy established during Trump's administration could enhance parliamentary oversight over commitments made to Gulf partners and restrict the export of sensitive technologies. For Morocco, a renewed Congress could reignite discussions surrounding the Western Sahara issue. Ultimately, the decisive moment will be January 2029, when Trump’s second term concludes, revealing whether the diplomatic gains of 2020 can endure beyond their transactional origins.
It is essential to note that since the outbreak of the conflict in Gaza, Israel has become Morocco's third-largest arms supplier, despite a purported "freeze in political relations," which is, in reality, a mere facade aimed at pacifying Moroccan public opinion, which has mobilized against the recent visit of the Israeli Minister of Transport, described by Moroccan authorities as a "private" trip. This minister, who is currently enjoying her time in Morocco, previously made dehumanizing remarks about Palestinians and called for the Israeli military to "enter Gaza, crush its inhabitants, and eradicate them."
As reported by tsa-algerie.com.
