The Looming Threat of El Niño and Its Implications for Morocco
The United Nations has issued a warning regarding the impending return of the "El Niño" phenomenon in the coming months, with an 80% probability of its development between June and August. This likelihood escalates to 90% for its continuation until November, raising concerns among Moroccan experts about the gradual onset of drought conditions. El Niño is characterized by fluctuations in ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, with significant global climate implications.
According to the United Nations, this phenomenon is predicted to be of moderate to strong intensity, suggesting a potential rise in global temperatures and an increased risk of extreme weather events, including heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and drought in various regions worldwide. Mohamed Baza, an international expert in water resource management, highlighted that while definitive predictions regarding drought conditions cannot be made at this stage, there exists a natural probability of a notable increase in temperatures. He pointed out that precipitation is often scarce during the summer months, with only a slim chance of summer thunderstorms.
Potential Drought Scenarios and Future Outlook
Baza further elaborated that the possibility of actual drought remains uncertain, but the question of whether Morocco will experience a dry season looms large and requires careful monitoring of weather conditions. He anticipates the likelihood of dry weather at least at the beginning of the season, estimating this dry spell could extend from September to December, lasting approximately three to four months. The probability that the beginning of the next year could be dry or semi-dry is around 50%, which, while relatively low, still warrants serious consideration. Looking ahead to 2027 and beyond, Baza cautioned that there is insufficient scientific data to accurately forecast drought conditions or predict weather patterns.
Climate expert Said Qarrouq noted that research conducted since the 1990s has revealed an organic and energetic connection between Morocco's climate and that of the North Atlantic, as well as the equatorial region. This intertropical convergence zone provides thermal energy that drives atmospheric patterns, including the Azores High, which significantly influences climatic systems. Qarrouq further explained that the strength of the Azores High governs precipitation levels; a strong high-pressure system tends to inhibit rainfall, while a weaker system, as observed during recent La Niña conditions, can result in negative oscillations leading to heavy rainfall, exemplified by the floods experienced in the previous winter months.
Recent data collected since March indicates a developing El Niño, which is gradually stabilizing in strength and portends a certain return of drought and increased heat to Morocco. Qarrouq emphasized that terrestrial climate is directly influenced by oceans, which absorb solar radiation and convert it into energy that governs hydrological cycles and precipitation rates. He indicated that the anticipated drought may unfold in stages, beginning with atmospheric dryness, followed by agricultural drought, and ultimately reaching hydrological drought. Given the current water reservoir levels in northern Morocco, the immediate impact of lacking rainfall may not be felt, reminiscent of the drought that began in 2018, with its consequences only becoming evident by late 2021.
In light of these findings, it is crucial for decision-makers and authorities to remain vigilant and manage the current water reserves judiciously, reevaluating water management strategies. Continuing to consume water at the same rate as if precipitation were normal could lead to repeating past mistakes and jeopardizing water security.
As reported by hespress.com.
