In a significant shift in the African economic landscape, Morocco has ascended to the top position in the African Development Bank's (AfDB) Africa Industrialisation Index for 2025, displacing South Africa after a remarkable 15-year reign as the continent's foremost industrial economy. This pivotal report was disclosed during the AfDB's Annual Meetings in Brazzaville, highlighting Morocco's remarkable advancements attributed to a steadfast industrial policy, a commitment to diversifying exports, and robust growth in manufacturing across key sectors such as automotive, aerospace, and infrastructure.
The top ten nations in the index also include Egypt, Tunisia, Mauritius, Algeria, Eswatini, Senegal, Namibia, and Côte d'Ivoire. The index evaluated industrial development across 54 African nations from 2010 to 2024, revealing that 41 countries enhanced their industrialisation scores, leading to a 6% overall increase in Africa's industrial performance. Notably, North and Southern Africa continue to lead in manufacturing output and export sophistication. However, the report underscores a critical challenge: intra-African trade remains alarmingly low, constituting merely 14.4% of total trade, indicating a structural weakness that needs addressing.
Morocco's rise to prominence is the culmination of two decades of strategic policy implementation. The automotive sector has emerged as the nation's largest export industry, producing a staggering 493,004 passenger cars in 2025, significantly outpacing South Africa's production of 329,600 units. In 2023, automotive exports to the European Union soared to €15.1 billion. Meanwhile, the aerospace sector, which boasts over 150 companies including global giants like Boeing, Airbus, Safran, and Thales, generated $2.87 billion in exports in 2024, a remarkable increase from $839 million a decade prior. Furthermore, substantial investments in infrastructure, including the Tanger Med port, the Al Boraq high-speed rail line, and the Nador West Med complex, have solidified Morocco's status as a pivotal manufacturing and logistics hub bridging Europe, Africa, and the Middle East.
Conversely, South Africa's decline can primarily be attributed to the failures of two state monopolies. The persistent power outages caused by the utility company Eskom have compelled manufacturers to resort to costly self-generation alternatives, while the deterioration of Transnet's rail network has shifted freight transport onto roads, exacerbating port congestion at Durban and Cape Town. Over the past decade, the country's GDP growth has stagnated at an average of less than 1% annually, with gross fixed-capital formation contracting in three out of four quarters in 2024. President Ramaphosa has projected that South Africa requires R1.6 trillion (approximately $99 billion) in public infrastructure investment and an additional R3.2 trillion from the private sector to achieve its 2030 infrastructure objectives.
The AfDB's report emphasizes that Africa's industrial future hinges on reliable energy sources, enhanced infrastructure, improved technical skills, sufficient financing, and deeper regional integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Harouna Kaboré, a contributor to the report, articulated that the continent's real challenge is not the absence of industrial strategies but rather the lack of rigor in their implementation. The reversal of rankings between Morocco and South Africa delineates a tale of one nation's ascendancy amidst another's institutional failures.
Morocco's industrial strategy, which has been characterized by unwavering royal support since the early 2000s, has exhibited remarkable consistency by African standards, effectively withstanding changes in government, external shocks, and the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. This stability has been achieved due to a policy framework that is insulated from electoral cycles, unlike South Africa's democratic system. The results are evident in Morocco's burgeoning manufacturing sector, which has expanded from negligible automotive production to nearly 1 million units annually, and the aerospace industry, which has evolved from a cottage industry to a robust $2.87 billion export sector. In stark contrast, South Africa grapples with Eskom's crippling debt, which now exceeds 400 billion rand, acting as a fiscal anchor that stifles the essential infrastructure investments required to maintain competitiveness in heavy industry. The deterioration of Transnet has further imposed a logistics tax on manufacturers nationwide.
Moreover, the AfDB's findings highlight the systemic issue of intra-African trade, which remains at a mere 14.4% of total trade, signifying that African manufacturers predominantly export to Europe and Asia, primarily dealing in commodities rather than finished goods. This trend is detrimental to the continent's economic growth and development. The AfCFTA, presently in its implementation phase, is a structural mechanism aimed at addressing these challenges, yet its success is contingent upon the same energy, logistics, and institutional capacity identified as core deficits in Africa's industrial framework.
As reported by allafrica.com.
