Insights from Mounir Mellouk on the Casablanca Stock Exchange
In a recent analysis shared during the Medias24 program, Mounir Mellouk, the CEO and founder of Twin Capital Gestion, provided a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Casablanca Stock Exchange. Despite a notable decline of 8% since the beginning of the year, Mellouk remains optimistic, asserting that the Moroccan market is underpinned by solid fundamentals and resilience that surpass that of 2022. The recent downturn, he argues, should not be viewed as a cause for alarm, but rather as a natural correction following an exceptional period of growth in 2025. During that year, the market had soared to impressive highs, achieving performance rates between 35% and 37%, levels that were deemed unsustainable in a normative market environment.
Several factors have contributed to this recent correction. Firstly, profit-taking by tactical investors aiming to secure their substantial gains has played a significant role. Secondly, a disappointing monetary policy decision by Bank Al-Maghrib, which opted to maintain the benchmark interest rate in September rather than decrease it as many market participants had anticipated, has dampened enthusiasm. Furthermore, the vulnerability of small investors, who now represent 30% of trading volumes in Casablanca, has heightened market volatility. This demographic often reacts with panic to minor disturbances, a trend exacerbated by recent protests from the Gen Z demographic that have intensified selling behaviors.
Resilience in the Face of Economic Challenges
The cumulative correction from the market's peaks has reached between 15% and 20%, which Mellouk likens to a 'mini-shock' for latecomers to the market. However, he emphasizes that the situation in 2026 is markedly different from the shock experienced in 2022, during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Back then, soaring inflation, which peaked at 10%, and a sudden rise in interest rates took the market by surprise. Today, the Moroccan economy is exhibiting a growth rate of 5%, while inflation remains below 1%, providing the central bank with ample room for maneuver. Additionally, the profit growth of listed companies exceeds 25%, enhancing their ability to withstand economic shocks.
Despite the prevailing uncertainties, there is an underlying optimism regarding the Moroccan market's trajectory. Mellouk points out that the current geopolitical tensions appear to be partially anticipated by the markets, which seem to be factoring in a scenario of limited-duration tensions. Nevertheless, a significant risk looms from the Treasury's appetite to finance major projects, particularly the organization of the 2030 FIFA World Cup, which has led to an uptick in interest rates by 25 to 40 basis points. This trend could result in a shift of investor interest towards higher-yielding bonds, thereby making stocks less attractive.
As Morocco prepares for upcoming elections, Mellouk is confident that these political changes will not disrupt the market. He believes that all political parties are aligned in fostering an environment of economic expansion, with industrial strategies and sectoral visibility remaining consistent.
Mellouk concludes with investment strategies tailored to the current climate: for cautious investors, he recommends prioritizing money market funds that offer secure placements with yields around 2-2.5%. For long-term investors, he suggests capitalizing on the current discounts through gradual investments in equity or diversified funds while maintaining liquidity to seize opportunities as market conditions improve. "Investing in the stock market carries risks but can yield significant rewards over time. It is essential not to succumb to panic," he asserts.
As reported by medias24.com.
