On September 23, Morocco will hold elections to determine its next government amidst a political landscape where issues regarding Ceuta and Melilla have surfaced. However, experts suggest that there is little expectation for a radical shift in the kingdom's foreign policy, particularly concerning its relationship with Spain, which had been experiencing a positive phase until the events in late July in the autonomous city. In the coming months, new challenges may emerge, according to analysts.
In Morocco, foreign policy is largely dictated by King Mohammed VI and his inner circle, who set the priorities and strategies toward the international community. Riccardo Fabiani, the North Africa director for the Crisis Group think tank, emphasizes that the king appoints the Minister of Foreign Affairs to ensure coherence between the monarchy and the government. Currently, this position is held by Naser Burita, who has been in office since April 2017 and is expected to continue in his role given Morocco's significant international advances concerning its primary issue: Western Sahara.
The King's Influence on Foreign Policy
The king's role in appointing the foreign minister explains why foreign policy is barely addressed in the electoral platforms of the governing coalition's parties. Irene Fernández-Molina, a professor of International Relations at the University of Exeter and a member of the academic council of the Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CEARC), notes that only the opposition Justice and Development Party (PJD), which opposes rapprochement with Israel, includes a minor section on foreign policy. However, it is unlikely that the PJD will achieve a surprising electoral outcome or become part of the governing coalition.
Currently, indications suggest a continuation of the existing coalition led by the National Rally of Independents (RNI), headed by the current Prime Minister Aziz Ajanuch, alongside the Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM) and the nationalist Istiqlal Party. The major uncertainty lies in whether the RNI will lead the coalition again or if the PAM will take the forefront. Regardless, Fernández-Molina asserts that no significant changes in foreign policy are expected. The international agenda has remained consistent for years, emphasizing the Western Sahara issue and the claims over Ceuta and Melilla as its unshakeable pillars.
Nonetheless, it is important to clarify that these two issues do not operate in tandem; the question of the former Spanish colony is deemed more central and urgent than that of Ceuta and Melilla. As previously stated by Mohammed VI, Western Sahara is the lens through which Morocco evaluates its relations with other countries, with the current priority being to consolidate and gain recognition for its sovereignty over this territory.
Potential Challenges Ahead
The Moroccan claims over Ceuta and Melilla, often referred to as "occupied presidios," have gained traction during the electoral campaign, fueled by figures from the PAM and RNI who have adopted more nationalistic and confrontational rhetoric toward Spain to attract votes. Nevertheless, Fernández-Molina does not foresee any continuity of this rhetoric following the elections.
Regarding the mass influx of migrants into Ceuta in late July, this issue was also not a focal point during the campaign. According to Elcano expert David Hernández, the events have tarnished Morocco's international image just as the king was celebrating the socio-economic advances achieved during his reign. Fabiani predicts that the existing tensions between Spain and Morocco concerning Ceuta will likely remain high for some time but may gradually diminish as discussions shift toward other matters in both nations. He highlights that both governments are striving to prevent escalation and continue collaborating, aware of the numerous interests at stake.
Despite the potential change in the position of the Prime Minister not impacting the stance toward Spain, there are other "stones in the path" that could cloud bilateral relations in the coming months, warns Miguel Hernando de Larramendi, a professor of Arab and Islamic Studies at the University of Castilla La Mancha (UCLM) and a member of CEARC's academic council. He points to the upcoming visit of the Spanish royals to Ceuta and Melilla, the approval of a law granting nationality to Sahrawis, and the potential visit of Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune to Spain as critical points of contention.
In the case of the royal visit, Hernando de Larramendi recalls that the last royal visit in 2007 by King Juan Carlos I and Queen Sofía incited only a limited reaction from Morocco, which called its ambassador for consultations. On the matter of the nationality law for Sahrawis, opinions within Morocco are divided, as it ultimately relates to Western Sahara, though its approval might now be delayed in the Senate, where the Popular Party holds a majority.
Both Hernando de Larramendi and Hernández concur that a change in the Spanish government could be a decisive factor influencing bilateral relations in the near future. Hernando de Larramendi references the Moroccan Foreign Ministry's statement on September 10 regarding Ceuta, which criticized the Popular Party for resorting to populism, warning that Morocco would not serve as a "scapegoat for partisan score-settling" and emphasizing that "geographical proximity is an immutable fact."
Considering the events of 2011, when Mariano Rajoy came to power following mass protests against the PP in Casablanca due to its stance on Western Sahara, it is notable that relations with Morocco were eventually restored despite initial tensions. Furthermore, experts unanimously agree that voter turnout will be a key element to observe in these elections, as it has been declining, reflecting a growing disconnection within society, particularly among the youth.
For Morocco, it is crucial to rehabilitate its image as a reliable partner, not just for Spain but also for the EU, especially after being severely discredited due to the events in Ceuta. Hernando de Larramendi believes that the mass entry of migrants in late July served as a "correction" to Mohammed VI's narrative, underscoring the increasing willingness among Moroccan youth to consider leaving the country.
As reported by eleconomista.es.
