The Transformation of Energy Systems and the Role of Green Hydrogen
The emergence of green hydrogen is not merely a result of spontaneous market dynamics; rather, it reflects a deeper shift within energy systems characterized by decarbonization, fragmentation of supply chains, and the rise of industrial policies. Europe, having faced its dependency on Russian gas since 2022, has strategically positioned hydrogen as a lever for sovereignty, setting ambitious goals to produce 10 million tons domestically and an equal amount through imports by 2030.
This reconfiguration of energy resources creates unprecedented opportunities for countries endowed with a comparative advantage in renewable energy, enabling them to produce hydrogen at competitive costs. The global competition surrounding hydrogen is reshaping the landscape, with Germany, despite its limited renewable potential, securing strategic partnerships with Namibia and the United Arab Emirates to ensure future supplies.
Australia, rich in solar and wind resources, has initiated monumental projects such as the Asian Renewable Energy Hub, aiming to produce millions of tons of hydrogen for export to Asia. Meanwhile, Chile aspires to become one of the world’s lowest-cost producers thanks to its exceptional conditions in the Atacama Desert, targeting an installation of 25 GW of electrolysis capacity by 2030.
These strategies do not solely rest on natural endowments but are underpinned by aggressive public policies that blend subsidies, price guarantees, and dedicated infrastructure. In the United States, the Inflation Reduction Act offers tax credits of up to $3 per kilogram of hydrogen produced, dramatically altering the economic balance of the sector. This significant government intervention reveals a crucial reality: green hydrogen is less about being a commodity and more about serving as an instrument of industrial power.
Morocco's Aspirations and Challenges in Green Hydrogen Production
Since launching its national hydrogen strategy in 2021, Morocco has progressively embraced this momentum. The Kingdom aims to capture up to 4% of global demand by 2030, with a particular focus on European markets. Several significant agreements have been signed to realize this vision. In October 2022, a strategic partnership was established with Germany to develop the hydrogen sector, including pilot projects and financing mechanisms.
In June 2023, a consortium involving TotalEnergies and international partners announced an investment project nearing 100 billion dirhams for producing green hydrogen and ammonia in southern Morocco. More recently, in 2024, the OCP Group accelerated its positioning by incorporating green hydrogen into its decarbonization strategy, heavily investing in green ammonia to secure its supplies.
These initiatives signal a clear intent to structure an integrated sector, spanning renewable electricity production to industrial transformation. They build upon previous successes in solar and wind energy, where Morocco has successfully developed large-scale projects such as Noor Ouarzazate. However, scaling up production remains the primary challenge.
Producing green hydrogen necessitates colossal investments in infrastructure, particularly in electrolyzers, transport networks, and storage capacities. From this perspective, expert Oussama Ouassini offers a particularly insightful geo-economic framework. He asserts that global competition will not be determined by production costs, which are likely to converge due to innovation and artificial intelligence, but rather by the control of flows.
“If energy becomes nearly free, the only significant cost will be that of transport and distribution. Morocco is thus transforming a potential disadvantage into a structural advantage by positioning itself as a logistical platform at the gates of Europe,” he analyses. This approach redefines the very notion of comparative advantage. Against giants like Australia and Saudi Arabia, which possess abundant energy resources, Morocco cannot compete solely on cost. However, its geographical proximity to Europe affords it a critical edge in terms of latency and supply security.
In an economy where delivery speed and flow reliability are paramount, this positioning could prove decisive. Nonetheless, this trajectory is not without risks. Water constraints, in a context of increasing stress, necessitate additional investments in desalination. Furthermore, the cost of capital remains higher than in developed economies, potentially impacting project competitiveness. Lastly, the absence of a structured domestic market limits learning effects and economies of scale. Nevertheless, Morocco's gamble is grounded in a coherent logic: to anticipate a structural transformation of the global energy system by investing today in key infrastructures. It is less about winning the battle of the present than about positioning for the battle of tomorrow.
In a world where energy could become abundant, if not nearly free, scarcity will shift towards transformation, storage, and distribution capabilities. This is precisely the terrain on which Morocco is attempting to position itself. Thus, the question is less about immediate profitability and more about strategic relevance. Balancing technological bets with a geo-economic vision, the Kingdom is treading a fine line. Should the anticipated disruption materialize, Morocco could find itself at the heart of new global energy flows. Conversely, it will have at least laid the foundations for industrial infrastructure capable of supporting alternative development trajectories.
As reported by fnh.ma.
